Redo tests
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@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ For SARS in Hong Kong use
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For COVID-19 in the US use
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`./solver2.py --popcountry=3000000 --initial=100 --mode={SIR,Linear,ESIR,SEIR}`
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General usage:
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```
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usage: solver2.py [-h] [--mode {SIR,Linear,ESIR,SEIR}]
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[--data [{Actual,S,I,R,E} [{Actual,S,I,R,E} ...]]]
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SARS-ESIR.png
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@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
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Beta: 0.11506079905613333
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Gamma: 0.004485002592721715
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Mu: 1e-08
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R0: 25.654509698111923
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Predicted I: 1266.8145664521824, Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
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Beta: 0.11611254858884054
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Gamma: 0.004524040067261208
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Mu: 0.001
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R0: 21.019497899190398
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Predicted I: 1266.3066498710834
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Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
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@ -1,78 +1,78 @@
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,Actual,S,I,R
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1/22/20,0.0033333333333333335,9999.666666666666,0.33333333333333337,0.0
|
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1/23/20,0.0033333333333333335,9999.626113386881,0.37230581397620527,0.0015807991430292917
|
||||
1/24/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.58081926442,0.4158343279178975,0.0033464076627307353
|
||||
1/25/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.530230241262,0.46445133279667583,0.005318425940276048
|
||||
1/26/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.47370935019,0.5187689595900552,0.007521690219182955
|
||||
1/27/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.410195932789,0.5798064388452426,0.009997628365004882
|
||||
1/28/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.339138100348,0.6480941545637604,0.012767745089180731
|
||||
1/29/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.260059689912,0.7240897547339856,0.01585055535425662
|
||||
1/30/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.172252932163,0.8084734505330113,0.019273617303852183
|
||||
1/31/20,0.023333333333333334,9999.074778451411,0.902148016326647,0.023073532262660536
|
||||
2/1/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.966465265594,1.0062387896694178,0.0272959447364483
|
||||
2/2/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.845910786284,1.122093671304566,0.03199554241205561
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||||
2/3/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.711480818678,1.251283125164049,0.03723605615739605
|
||||
2/4/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.56130956161,1.3956001783685417,0.043090260021456786
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||||
2/5/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.393299607538,1.5570604212274348,0.0496399712342984
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||||
2/6/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.205121942554,1.737902007238834,0.056976050207055
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||||
2/7/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.994215946379,1.9405856530895627,0.06519840053193422
|
||||
2/8/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.757789392363,2.1677946386551605,0.07441596898221718
|
||||
2/9/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.492818447488,2.4224348069998825,0.08474674551225844
|
||||
2/10/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.196047672365,2.7076345643767,0.09631776325748614
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||||
2/11/20,0.04,9996.863990021238,3.0267448802273016,0.1092650985344019
|
||||
2/12/20,0.04,9996.492926841978,3.38333928718209,0.12373387084058081
|
||||
2/13/20,0.043333333333333335,9996.078907876084,3.781213881060188,0.13987824285467146
|
||||
2/14/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.617751258695,4.224387320869431,0.157861420436396
|
||||
2/15/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.100289480084,4.721661948385379,0.17804857153125916
|
||||
2/16/20,0.043333333333333335,9994.516819794286,5.282354253776822,0.20082595193720937
|
||||
2/17/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.866243817323,5.907527234907954,0.2262289477694925
|
||||
2/18/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.145311395869,6.600310380400788,0.25437822373033286
|
||||
2/19/20,0.043333333333333335,9992.348460820938,7.366052973091157,0.2854862059703617
|
||||
2/20/20,0.043333333333333335,9991.467818827883,8.212324090028714,0.3198570820886177
|
||||
2/21/20,0.05,9990.493200596391,9.14891260247693,0.35788680113254645
|
||||
2/22/20,0.05,9989.41210975049,10.187827175913094,0.4000630735980009
|
||||
2/23/20,0.05,9988.209738358544,11.343296270028326,0.44696537142924114
|
||||
2/24/20,0.05,9986.868966933253,12.631768138727548,0.49926492801893446
|
||||
2/25/20,0.05,9985.370364431663,14.071910830129516,0.5577247382081553
|
||||
2/26/20,0.05,9983.692188255147,15.684612186566797,0.6231995582863851
|
||||
2/27/20,0.05333333333333334,9981.810384249424,17.492979844585772,0.6966359059915124
|
||||
2/28/20,0.05333333333333334,9979.698586704544,19.522341234946662,0.7790720605098338
|
||||
2/29/20,0.08,9977.3281183549,21.800243582623494,0.8716380624760518
|
||||
3/1/20,0.1,9974.667990379223,24.356453906804106,0.9755557139732771
|
||||
3/2/20,0.17666666666666667,9971.684902400577,27.222959020890176,1.0921385785330266
|
||||
3/3/20,0.24333333333333335,9968.343242486368,30.43396553249719,1.222791981135226
|
||||
3/4/20,0.3466666666666667,9964.605087148337,34.02589984345444,1.369013008208206
|
||||
3/5/20,0.5733333333333334,9960.430201342566,38.03740814980507,1.5323905076287054
|
||||
3/6/20,0.7233333333333334,9955.776038469472,42.50935644180602,1.7146050887218716
|
||||
3/7/20,1.12,9950.59774037381,47.48483050392804,1.9174291222612567
|
||||
3/8/20,1.5,9944.844563782051,53.01250683519244,2.1429293827570484
|
||||
3/9/20,1.7133333333333334,9938.429109001789,59.17581074493476,2.3950802532771633
|
||||
3/10/20,2.3600000000000003,9931.28410971237,66.03953431726215,2.676355970369462
|
||||
3/11/20,3.6833333333333336,9923.337492154149,73.673190586763,2.9893172590894515
|
||||
3/12/20,5.19,9914.501469396979,82.16127704189319,3.3372535611291965
|
||||
3/13/20,7.156666666666667,9904.672541340207,91.60327562497613,3.724183034817316
|
||||
3/14/20,9.523333333333333,9893.731494712678,102.1136527322028,4.15485255511899
|
||||
3/15/20,9.726666666666667,9881.543403072734,113.82185921363165,4.634737713635952
|
||||
3/16/20,14.356666666666667,9867.957626808206,126.87233037318875,5.170042818606493
|
||||
3/17/20,20.32,9852.807813136427,141.42448596866763,5.767700894905462
|
||||
3/18/20,29.576666666666668,9835.911896104228,157.65273021172933,6.435373684044263
|
||||
3/19/20,46.980000000000004,9817.072096587928,175.74645176790264,7.181451644170861
|
||||
3/20/20,64.67666666666668,9796.074922293348,195.91002375658354,8.015053950069769
|
||||
3/21/20,85.75,9772.691167755802,218.36280375103587,8.946028493162066
|
||||
3/22/20,112.11333333333334,9746.675914340105,243.33913377839076,9.984951881505387
|
||||
3/23/20,145.54333333333335,9717.76853024056,271.088340319647,11.143129439793915
|
||||
3/24/20,179.12,9685.692670480972,301.8747343096709,12.432595209358398
|
||||
3/25/20,219.26000000000002,9650.156276914639,335.9776111371963,13.866111948166141
|
||||
3/26/20,279.4533333333334,9610.854601775942,373.6880684074213,15.457329816637479
|
||||
3/27/20,338.8566666666667,9567.476342716238,415.2991688314755,17.224488452287385
|
||||
3/28/20,404.9266666666667,9519.552038843865,461.26051676003846,19.18744439609663
|
||||
3/29/20,469.6966666666667,9466.572446747607,512.0603658715773,21.367187380816706
|
||||
3/30/20,539.4566666666667,9408.027732312834,568.1854772150563,23.786790472111093
|
||||
3/31/20,627.24,9343.40747072151,630.121119209935,26.47141006855526
|
||||
4/1/20,711.2066666666667,9272.200646452193,698.3510676461705,29.448285901636666
|
||||
4/2/20,812.0533333333334,9193.895653280031,773.3576056842154,32.74674103575474
|
||||
4/3/20,918.6066666666667,9107.98029427676,855.621523855019,36.39818186822094
|
||||
4/4/20,1029.4833333333333,9013.941781810714,945.6221200600273,40.43609812925864
|
||||
4/5/20,1123.5500000000002,8911.266737546815,1043.8371995711823,44.89606288200328
|
||||
4/6/20,1222.2,8799.441192446577,1150.7430750309222,49.81573252250221
|
||||
4/7/20,1320.7366666666667,8677.950586768104,1266.8145664521824,55.23484677971486
|
||||
1/23/20,0.0033333333333333335,9999.626095676935,0.37231053677763254,0.001593786286915802
|
||||
1/24/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.58078279427,0.41584487576026286,0.0033723299710163293
|
||||
1/25/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.530173769705,0.4644690007417708,0.005357229553999665
|
||||
1/26/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.473631396437,0.5187952836492806,0.00757331991530616
|
||||
1/27/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.410094705107,0.5798432714292945,0.01006202346449564
|
||||
1/28/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.339011673834,0.6481434854225859,0.01284484074443086
|
||||
1/29/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.259905882354,0.7241538291003518,0.015940288545093207
|
||||
1/30/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.172069198947,0.808554873961381,0.0193759270926271
|
||||
1/31/20,0.023333333333333334,9999.074561780419,0.9022498595320555,0.023188360049340048
|
||||
2/1/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.96621207212,1.0063646933663488,0.027423234513702623
|
||||
2/2/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.845616807934,1.122247951045827,0.03213524102034845
|
||||
2/3/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.71114101028,1.2514708761796485,0.03738811354007421
|
||||
2/4/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.560917990117,1.395827380404564,0.04325462947983968
|
||||
2/5/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.392849346932,1.5573340433849172,0.04981660968276766
|
||||
2/6/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.20460496876,1.7382301128126425,0.05716491842814404
|
||||
2/7/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.99362303216,1.9409775044072688,0.06539946343141781
|
||||
2/8/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.75711000224,2.168260801915915,0.07462919584420091
|
||||
2/9/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.492040632633,2.4229872571132947,0.08497211025426847
|
||||
2/10/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.195157965512,2.708286789801712,0.09655524468555861
|
||||
2/11/20,0.04,9996.86297333159,3.027511987811063,0.10951468059817256
|
||||
2/12/20,0.04,9996.491766350113,3.3842381069988394,0.12399554288837454
|
||||
2/13/20,0.043333333333333335,9996.077584928862,3.7822630712501213,0.14015199988859198
|
||||
2/14/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.616245264155,4.225607472477582,0.15814726336741514
|
||||
2/15/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.098556442035,4.723096235057338,0.17834732290775016
|
||||
2/16/20,0.043333333333333335,9994.514845789241,5.284017136407844,0.20113707435095515
|
||||
2/17/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.864010563995,5.90943741283743,0.22655202316676873
|
||||
2/18/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.142790843849,6.602496014158112,0.25471314199151734
|
||||
2/19/20,0.043333333333333335,9992.345614795056,7.368552058222776,0.28583314671950544
|
||||
2/20/20,0.043333333333333335,9991.464598672572,8.215184830925176,0.32021649650301515
|
||||
2/21/20,0.05,9990.489546820047,9.152193786199938,0.35825939375230625
|
||||
2/22/20,0.05,9989.407951669842,10.191598546022547,0.4004497841356165
|
||||
2/23/20,0.05,9988.204993743011,11.347638900409379,0.4473673565791615
|
||||
2/24/20,0.05,9986.863541649314,12.636774807417655,0.4996835432671343
|
||||
2/25/20,0.05,9985.364152087213,14.077686393145484,0.5581615196417063
|
||||
2/26/20,0.05,9983.685069843865,15.691273951731832,0.6236562044030263
|
||||
2/27/20,0.05333333333333334,9981.802227795135,17.500657945356547,0.697114259509221
|
||||
2/28/20,0.05333333333333334,9979.689246905584,19.53117900424033,0.7795740901763949
|
||||
2/29/20,0.08,9977.317436228477,21.810397926644768,0.8721658448786301
|
||||
3/1/20,0.1,9974.65579290578,24.368095678872294,0.9761114153479871
|
||||
3/2/20,0.17666666666666667,9971.67100216816,27.236273395266252,1.0927244365745035
|
||||
3/3/20,0.24333333333333335,9968.327437334983,30.449152378210815,1.2234102868061953
|
||||
3/4/20,0.3466666666666667,9964.58715981432,34.04317409813103,1.3696660875490554
|
||||
3/5/20,0.5733333333333334,9960.40991910294,38.05700019349284,1.5330807035670555
|
||||
3/6/20,0.7233333333333334,9955.753152786316,42.531512470803044,1.7153347428821446
|
||||
3/7/20,1.12,9950.571986538616,47.5098129046093,1.9182005567742502
|
||||
3/8/20,1.5,9944.81558970687,53.040660838266234,2.143749454862779
|
||||
3/9/20,1.7133333333333334,9938.396673803038,59.20737433205295,2.3959518649096894
|
||||
3/10/20,2.3600000000000003,9931.247999355443,66.07472435428711,2.677276290269796
|
||||
3/11/20,3.6833333333333336,9923.297309777423,73.712401260227,2.990288962350146
|
||||
3/12/20,5.19,9914.456673367014,82.20504309131843,3.3382835416664998
|
||||
3/13/20,7.156666666666667,9904.622483306961,91.65223557519478,3.7252811178433354
|
||||
3/14/20,9.523333333333333,9893.675457664709,102.16851212567697,4.1560302096138475
|
||||
3/15/20,9.726666666666667,9881.480639392406,113.8833538427735,4.636006764819948
|
||||
3/16/20,14.356666666666667,9867.887396326907,126.94118951268037,5.171414160412261
|
||||
3/17/20,20.32,9852.729421189768,141.5013956077811,5.7691832024501295
|
||||
3/18/20,29.576666666666668,9835.82473158725,157.73829628664697,6.436972126101615
|
||||
3/19/20,46.980000000000004,9816.975670010319,175.84116339403656,7.1831665956434945
|
||||
3/20/20,64.67666666666668,9795.968903834642,196.014216460896,8.016879704461253
|
||||
3/21/20,85.75,9772.57542532059,218.47662270435924,8.947951975049108
|
||||
3/22/20,112.11333333333334,9746.550551613242,243.46249702774747,9.986951359009977
|
||||
3/23/20,145.54333333333335,9717.633924742373,271.2209020205698,11.145173237055502
|
||||
3/24/20,179.12,9685.54951162247,302.01584795852233,12.434640419006044
|
||||
3/25/20,219.26000000000002,9650.00560405272,336.1262928034892,13.868103143790671
|
||||
3/26/20,279.4533333333334,9610.697907593993,373.8428988580305,15.459193547976117
|
||||
3/27/20,338.8566666666667,9567.316854293982,415.45706918520784,17.226076520809414
|
||||
3/28/20,404.9266666666667,9519.393612953694,461.41778951556955,19.188597530735006
|
||||
3/29/20,469.6966666666667,9466.419520709092,512.2127414224711,21.36773786843548
|
||||
3/30/20,539.4566666666667,9407.886018872221,568.3274478140935,23.786533313684455
|
||||
3/31/20,627.24,9343.28465293121,630.245272933443,26.470074135346565
|
||||
4/1/20,711.2066666666667,9272.10707255027,698.4474223583507,29.44550509137747
|
||||
4/2/20,812.0533333333334,9193.845031569701,773.4129430014739,32.74202542882385
|
||||
4/3/20,918.6066666666667,9107.990388005881,855.6187231102946,36.39088888382339
|
||||
4/4/20,1029.4833333333333,9014.035104051274,945.5394922671204,40.42540368160482
|
||||
4/5/20,1123.5500000000002,8911.471246074427,1043.6478213890841,44.88093253648787
|
||||
4/6/20,1222.2,8799.790984619971,1150.4141227281439,49.79489265188331
|
||||
4/7/20,1320.7366666666667,8678.486594408621,1266.3066498710834,55.206755720292904
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
|
|||
Beta: 0.0005306298181865554
|
||||
Gamma: 0.00121221978960238
|
||||
R0: 0.4377340006638624
|
||||
Predicted I: 377.76904311879434, Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
|
||||
Beta: 0.001
|
||||
Gamma: 0.001264208619688091
|
||||
R0: 0.7910086867203316
|
||||
Predicted I: 697.635036958848
|
||||
Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,78 +1,78 @@
|
|||
,Actual,S,I,R
|
||||
1/22/20,0.0033333333333333335,9999.666666666666,0.33333333333333337,0.0
|
||||
1/23/20,0.0033333333333333335,9994.361952905527,5.6344290411453315,0.003618053328386932
|
||||
1/24/20,0.006666666666666667,9989.060053236995,10.926290161791322,0.013656601213288695
|
||||
1/25/20,0.006666666666666667,9983.760966168222,16.208929375068454,0.03010445670892412
|
||||
1/26/20,0.016666666666666666,9978.46469020716,21.4823593440476,0.052950448791872544
|
||||
1/27/20,0.016666666666666666,9973.171223862553,26.746592715725946,0.08218342172213045
|
||||
1/28/20,0.016666666666666666,9967.880565643929,32.00164212109187,0.11779223497955642
|
||||
1/29/20,0.016666666666666666,9962.592714061611,37.24752017512499,0.15976576326387115
|
||||
1/30/20,0.016666666666666666,9957.307667626708,42.484239476796134,0.20809289649465731
|
||||
1/31/20,0.023333333333333334,9952.025424851121,47.7118126090673,0.26276253981135994
|
||||
2/1/20,0.02666666666666667,9946.745984247535,52.930252138891795,0.3237636135732857
|
||||
2/2/20,0.02666666666666667,9941.469344329427,58.139570617214055,0.3910850533596039
|
||||
2/3/20,0.03666666666666667,9936.195503611061,63.33978057896976,0.46471580996934553
|
||||
2/4/20,0.03666666666666667,9930.924460607494,68.53089454308581,0.544644849421404
|
||||
2/5/20,0.03666666666666667,9925.656213834565,73.71292501248031,0.6308611529545345
|
||||
2/6/20,0.03666666666666667,9920.39076180828,78.88588450480648,0.7233536869154422
|
||||
2/7/20,0.03666666666666667,9915.12810304507,84.04978553882692,0.8221114161027986
|
||||
2/8/20,0.03666666666666667,9909.86823606336,89.20464055942097,0.927123377219282
|
||||
2/9/20,0.03666666666666667,9904.611159382359,94.35046199522124,1.038378622420841
|
||||
2/10/20,0.03666666666666667,9899.356871522046,99.4872622597099,1.155866218243141
|
||||
2/11/20,0.04,9894.10537100318,104.61505375121851,1.2795752456015648
|
||||
2/12/20,0.04,9888.856656347281,109.73384885292818,1.409494799791212
|
||||
2/13/20,0.043333333333333335,9883.610726076644,114.84365993286939,1.5456139904868995
|
||||
2/14/20,0.043333333333333335,9878.367578714335,119.9444993439222,1.6879219417431601
|
||||
2/15/20,0.043333333333333335,9873.12721278419,125.03637942381604,1.8364077919942445
|
||||
2/16/20,0.043333333333333335,9867.889626810816,130.11931249512992,1.991060694054122
|
||||
2/17/20,0.043333333333333335,9862.654819319592,135.19331086529218,2.151869815116474
|
||||
2/18/20,0.043333333333333335,9857.422788836666,140.25838682658068,2.3188243367547043
|
||||
2/19/20,0.043333333333333335,9852.193533888956,145.31455265612286,2.49191345492193
|
||||
2/20/20,0.043333333333333335,9846.967053004155,150.36182061589548,2.6711263799509877
|
||||
2/21/20,0.05,9841.743344710721,155.40020295272484,2.856452336554429
|
||||
2/22/20,0.05,9836.522407537888,160.42971189828674,3.047880563824524
|
||||
2/23/20,0.05,9831.304240015661,165.45035966910632,3.2454003152332596
|
||||
2/24/20,0.05,9826.088840674809,170.46215846655832,3.4490008586323384
|
||||
2/25/20,0.05,9820.87620804688,175.46512047686696,3.658671476253179
|
||||
2/26/20,0.05,9815.666340664187,180.45925787110573,3.8744014647069225
|
||||
2/27/20,0.05333333333333334,9810.459237059818,185.44458280519788,4.09618013498442
|
||||
2/28/20,0.05333333333333334,9805.254895767628,190.4211074199159,4.323996812456246
|
||||
2/29/20,0.08,9800.053315322246,195.3888438408819,4.5578408368726855
|
||||
3/1/20,0.1,9794.854494259069,200.34780417856723,4.797701562363745
|
||||
3/2/20,0.17666666666666667,9789.658431114267,205.29800052829304,5.043568357439147
|
||||
3/3/20,0.24333333333333335,9784.465124424782,210.23944497022978,5.295430604988333
|
||||
3/4/20,0.3466666666666667,9779.274572728322,215.17214956939722,5.553277702280454
|
||||
3/5/20,0.5733333333333334,9774.086774563371,220.09612637566488,5.817099060964388
|
||||
3/6/20,0.7233333333333334,9768.90172846918,225.0113874237515,6.086884107068723
|
||||
3/7/20,1.12,9763.719432985772,229.9179447332255,6.3626222810017685
|
||||
3/8/20,1.5,9758.539886653944,234.81581030850467,6.644303037551545
|
||||
3/9/20,1.7133333333333334,9753.363088015258,239.7049961388562,6.931915845885796
|
||||
3/10/20,2.3600000000000003,9748.189035612051,244.58551419839685,7.225450189551979
|
||||
3/11/20,3.6833333333333336,9743.01772798743,249.4573764460929,7.5248955664772685
|
||||
3/12/20,5.19,9737.849163685272,254.32059482575988,7.83024148896856
|
||||
3/13/20,7.156666666666667,9732.683341250224,259.1751812660631,8.141477483712459
|
||||
3/14/20,9.523333333333333,9727.520259227707,264.021147680517,8.458593091775294
|
||||
3/15/20,9.726666666666667,9722.359916163912,268.8585059674857,8.781577868603105
|
||||
3/16/20,14.356666666666667,9717.202310605795,273.6872680101828,9.110421384021652
|
||||
3/17/20,20.32,9712.047441101093,278.50744567667124,9.445113222236419
|
||||
3/18/20,29.576666666666668,9706.895306198305,283.31905081986355,9.78564298183259
|
||||
3/19/20,46.980000000000004,9701.745904446703,288.1220952775217,10.132000275775082
|
||||
3/20/20,64.67666666666668,9696.599234396335,292.91659087225713,10.484174731408524
|
||||
3/21/20,85.75,9691.455294598012,297.70254941153064,10.84215599045726
|
||||
3/22/20,112.11333333333334,9686.314083603322,302.47998268765264,11.20593370902535
|
||||
3/23/20,145.54333333333335,9681.175599964621,307.24890247778296,11.57549755759657
|
||||
3/24/20,179.12,9676.039842235035,312.00932054393087,11.950837221034421
|
||||
3/25/20,219.26000000000002,9670.906808968462,316.7612486329552,12.331942398582116
|
||||
3/26/20,279.4533333333334,9665.776498719573,321.5046984765641,12.718802803862584
|
||||
3/27/20,338.8566666666667,9660.648910043807,326.2396817913154,13.11140816487847
|
||||
3/28/20,404.9266666666667,9655.524041497372,330.96621027861613,13.509748224012142
|
||||
3/29/20,469.6966666666667,9650.401891637252,335.68429562472306,13.913812738025676
|
||||
3/30/20,539.4566666666667,9645.282459021197,340.39394950074217,14.323591478060873
|
||||
3/31/20,627.24,9640.165742207731,345.0951835626292,14.739074229639247
|
||||
4/1/20,711.2066666666667,9635.051739756149,349.7880094511889,15.160250792662026
|
||||
4/2/20,812.0533333333334,9629.940450226513,354.4724387920761,15.587110981410163
|
||||
4/3/20,918.6066666666667,9624.83187217966,359.1484831957947,16.019644624544327
|
||||
4/4/20,1029.4833333333333,9619.726004177197,363.8161542576982,16.457841565104893
|
||||
4/5/20,1123.5500000000002,9614.6228447815,368.4754635579895,16.90169166051197
|
||||
4/6/20,1222.2,9609.522392555713,373.1264226617208,17.351184782565365
|
||||
4/7/20,1320.7366666666667,9604.424646063762,377.76904311879434,17.806310817444615
|
||||
1/23/20,0.0033333333333333335,9989.67199816714,10.321264632376549,0.006737200484663853
|
||||
1/24/20,0.006666666666666667,9979.687319340383,20.286593721263916,0.026086938353437734
|
||||
1/25/20,0.006666666666666667,9969.71262020166,30.229359134703532,0.058020663634877
|
||||
1/26/20,0.016666666666666666,9959.747890776385,40.14959934732493,0.10250987628845812
|
||||
1/27/20,0.016666666666666666,9949.793121099894,50.047352775550394,0.1595261245546648
|
||||
1/28/20,0.016666666666666666,9939.848301217442,59.922657777657015,0.2290410049002425
|
||||
1/29/20,0.016666666666666666,9929.913421184205,69.7755526537767,0.3110261620181981
|
||||
1/30/20,0.016666666666666666,9919.988471065275,79.60607564589615,0.40545328882780013
|
||||
1/31/20,0.023333333333333334,9910.073440935666,89.41426493785697,0.512294126474579
|
||||
2/1/20,0.02666666666666667,9900.168320880313,99.20015865535544,0.6315204643303259
|
||||
2/2/20,0.02666666666666667,9890.273100994063,108.96379486594273,0.763104139993095
|
||||
2/3/20,0.03666666666666667,9880.387771381687,118.70521157902485,0.9070170392872008
|
||||
2/4/20,0.03666666666666667,9870.512322151271,128.42444680225634,1.0632310464713308
|
||||
2/5/20,0.03666666666666667,9860.646743394555,138.12153870965642,1.231717895788374
|
||||
2/6/20,0.03666666666666667,9850.791025246623,147.79652513170706,1.41244962167041
|
||||
2/7/20,0.03666666666666667,9840.945157857503,157.449443797789,1.6053983447077729
|
||||
2/8/20,0.03666666666666667,9831.109131386711,167.08033238279165,1.8105362304971864
|
||||
2/9/20,0.03666666666666667,9821.282936003245,176.68922850711317,2.0278354896417645
|
||||
2/10/20,0.03666666666666667,9811.466561885587,186.27616973666042,2.2572683777510103
|
||||
2/11/20,0.04,9801.65999922171,195.84119358284892,2.4988071954408166
|
||||
2/12/20,0.04,9791.863238209064,205.38433750260288,2.7524242883334664
|
||||
2/13/20,0.043333333333333335,9782.076269054587,214.90563889835522,3.018092047057632
|
||||
2/14/20,0.043333333333333335,9772.299081974703,224.4051351180476,3.295782907248376
|
||||
2/15/20,0.043333333333333335,9762.531667195322,233.8828634551304,3.585469349547151
|
||||
2/16/20,0.043333333333333335,9752.774014951834,243.33886114856256,3.887123899601797
|
||||
2/17/20,0.043333333333333335,9743.026115489121,252.77316538281184,4.200719128066546
|
||||
2/18/20,0.043333333333333335,9733.287959061543,262.1858132878547,4.526227650602021
|
||||
2/19/20,0.043333333333333335,9723.559535932947,271.57684193917635,4.863622127875231
|
||||
2/20/20,0.043333333333333335,9713.840836376668,280.9462883577704,5.2128752655595765
|
||||
2/21/20,0.05,9704.131850675525,290.2941895101396,5.57395981433485
|
||||
2/22/20,0.05,9694.432569121816,299.620582308295,5.946848569887229
|
||||
2/23/20,0.05,9684.742982017333,308.9255036097566,6.331514372909282
|
||||
2/24/20,0.05,9675.063079673346,318.20899021755315,6.727930109099974
|
||||
2/25/20,0.05,9665.392852410612,327.47107888022174,7.13606870916465
|
||||
2/26/20,0.05,9655.732290559376,336.71180629180856,7.55590314881505
|
||||
2/27/20,0.05333333333333334,9646.081384459361,345.93120909186825,7.987406448769302
|
||||
2/28/20,0.05333333333333334,9636.440124459783,355.1293238654643,8.430551674751925
|
||||
2/29/20,0.08,9626.808500919336,364.3061871431688,8.885311937493828
|
||||
3/1/20,0.1,9617.186504206204,373.46183540106256,9.35166039273231
|
||||
3/2/20,0.17666666666666667,9607.574124698052,382.5963050607351,9.829570241211055
|
||||
3/3/20,0.24333333333333335,9597.971352782035,391.70963248928473,10.319014728680141
|
||||
3/4/20,0.3466666666666667,9588.378178854786,400.8018539993182,10.819967145896038
|
||||
3/5/20,0.5733333333333334,9578.794593322425,409.8730058489513,11.332400828621598
|
||||
3/6/20,0.7233333333333334,9569.220586600566,418.9231242418082,11.856289157626072
|
||||
3/7/20,1.12,9559.656149114293,427.95224532702196,12.391605558685097
|
||||
3/8/20,1.5,9550.101271298183,436.96040519923446,12.93832350258069
|
||||
3/9/20,1.7133333333333334,9540.555943596302,445.9476398985959,13.49641650510128
|
||||
3/10/20,2.3600000000000003,9531.020156462193,454.91398541076546,14.065858127041665
|
||||
3/11/20,3.6833333333333336,9521.493900358884,463.85947766691095,14.64662197420304
|
||||
3/12/20,5.19,9511.977165758897,472.784152543709,15.23868169739299
|
||||
3/13/20,7.156666666666667,9502.46994314423,481.68804586334466,15.84201099242549
|
||||
3/14/20,9.523333333333333,9492.972223006367,490.571193393512,16.45658360012091
|
||||
3/15/20,9.726666666666667,9483.48399584628,499.43363084741344,17.082373306305996
|
||||
3/16/20,14.356666666666667,9474.005252174424,508.27539388376044,17.719353941813896
|
||||
3/17/20,20.32,9464.535982510743,517.096518106773,18.367499382484137
|
||||
3/18/20,29.576666666666668,9455.076177384657,525.8970390661797,19.02678354916265
|
||||
3/19/20,46.980000000000004,9445.62582733508,534.676992257218,19.697180407701747
|
||||
3/20/20,64.67666666666668,9436.184922910405,543.4364131206341,20.378663968960133
|
||||
3/21/20,85.75,9426.753454668515,552.1753370426828,21.071208288802886
|
||||
3/22/20,112.11333333333334,9417.331413176771,560.8937993551276,21.774787468101508
|
||||
3/23/20,145.54333333333335,9407.918789012025,569.5918353352406,22.48937565273386
|
||||
3/24/20,179.12,9398.515572760612,578.2694802058028,23.214947033584195
|
||||
3/25/20,219.26000000000002,9389.121755018352,586.9267691351037,23.951475846543186
|
||||
3/26/20,279.4533333333334,9379.73732639055,595.5637372369418,24.698936372507855
|
||||
3/27/20,338.8566666666667,9370.362277491993,604.1804195706239,25.457302937381645
|
||||
3/28/20,404.9266666666667,9360.996598946958,612.7768511409657,26.226549912074375
|
||||
3/29/20,469.6966666666667,9351.640281389205,621.3530668982918,27.006651712502247
|
||||
3/30/20,539.4566666666667,9342.293315461975,629.9091017384353,27.797582799587868
|
||||
3/31/20,627.24,9332.955691818,638.4449905027378,28.599317679260228
|
||||
4/1/20,711.2066666666667,9323.627401119495,646.96076797805,29.411830902454703
|
||||
4/2/20,812.0533333333334,9314.308434038156,655.4564688967308,30.235097065113063
|
||||
4/3/20,918.6066666666667,9304.998781255166,663.9321279366484,31.069090808183464
|
||||
4/4/20,1029.4833333333333,9295.698433461199,672.3877797211793,31.913786817620462
|
||||
4/5/20,1123.5500000000002,9286.407381356405,680.8234588192086,32.769159824384985
|
||||
4/6/20,1222.2,9277.125615650424,689.2391997451308,33.635184604444376
|
||||
4/7/20,1320.7366666666667,9267.853127062379,697.635036958848,34.51183597877234
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
@ -3,4 +3,5 @@ Gamma: 0.001
|
|||
Mu: 0.0009999999999999992
|
||||
Sigma: 0.005265008086429555
|
||||
R0: 46.4494661074415
|
||||
Predicted I: 1267.3615656181303, Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
|
||||
Predicted I: 1267.3615656181303
|
||||
Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
|
|||
Beta: 0.11506051868918243
|
||||
Gamma: 0.004484787817138545
|
||||
R0: 25.65573297570077
|
||||
Predicted I: 1266.8105911330124, Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
|
||||
Beta: 0.11506078739615723
|
||||
Gamma: 0.004484934156558218
|
||||
R0: 25.654955765160217
|
||||
Predicted I: 1266.8203435457365
|
||||
Actual I: 1320.7366666666667
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,78 +1,78 @@
|
|||
,Actual,S,I,R
|
||||
1/22/20,0.0033333333333333335,9999.666666666666,0.33333333333333337,0.0
|
||||
1/23/20,0.0033333333333333335,9999.626113483311,0.3723057932824626,0.0015807234055033998
|
||||
1/24/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.580819471055,0.4158342816934694,0.003346247251000438
|
||||
1/25/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.530230573782,0.46445125535619813,0.00531817086165759
|
||||
1/26/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.473709826556,0.5187688441820978,0.007521329263086074
|
||||
1/27/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.410196574465,0.5798062772339272,0.009997148300881093
|
||||
1/28/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.339138930427,0.6480939379280791,0.012767131645821241
|
||||
1/29/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.260060733477,0.7240894731817856,0.01584979334159779
|
||||
1/30/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.172254217212,0.8084730926218743,0.01927269016575604
|
||||
1/31/20,0.023333333333333334,9999.074780009785,0.9021475685847693,0.023072421629695316
|
||||
2/1/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.966467133905,1.0062382361164908,0.02729462997866896
|
||||
2/2/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.845913006835,1.1220929929726546,0.03199400019178435
|
||||
2/3/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.711483440398,1.2512822996184734,0.037234259982002894
|
||||
2/4/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.561312640975,1.3955991792287554,0.043088179796139985
|
||||
2/5/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.393303209497,1.5570592176879055,0.0496375728148651
|
||||
2/6/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.205126141458,1.7379005635899234,0.056973294952701675
|
||||
2/7/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.994220826904,1.9405839282384063,0.06519524485802725
|
||||
2/8/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.75779505044,2.1677925856465476,0.07441236391307328
|
||||
2/9/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.492824991228,2.422432372537136,0.0847426362339254
|
||||
2/10/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.196055222987,2.7076316883425555,0.0963130886705231
|
||||
2/11/20,0.04,9996.863998713989,3.0267414952047873,0.10925979080666
|
||||
2/12/20,0.04,9996.492936827064,3.38333531797541,0.12372785495998372
|
||||
2/13/20,0.043333333333333335,9996.078919319601,3.7812092442155962,0.13987143618199585
|
||||
2/14/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.617764343546,4.2243819241961145,0.15785373225805216
|
||||
2/15/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.1003045259,4.721655585099373,0.17803988899952877
|
||||
2/16/20,0.043333333333333335,9994.516837015459,5.282346835600999,0.2008161489413117
|
||||
2/17/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.866263436728,5.907518666955111,0.22621789631618436
|
||||
2/18/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.14533367619,6.600300535008138,0.2543657888027925
|
||||
2/19/20,0.043333333333333335,9992.348486073488,7.366041685509018,0.2854722410034983
|
||||
2/20/20,0.043333333333333335,9991.467847421447,8.212311154109193,0.31984142444438063
|
||||
2/21/20,0.05,9990.493232966062,9.148897766362614,0.3578692675752351
|
||||
2/22/20,0.05,9989.412146406505,10.187810137725744,0.4000434557695737
|
||||
2/23/20,0.05,9988.209779895118,11.343276673557556,0.4469434313246251
|
||||
2/24/20,0.05,9986.86901403742,12.631745569119527,0.4992403934613348
|
||||
2/25/20,0.05,9985.3704178921,14.07188480957564,0.5576972983243645
|
||||
2/26/20,0.05,9983.692248971025,15.684582169992398,0.6231688589820928
|
||||
2/27/20,0.05333333333333334,9981.810453239235,17.492945215338796,0.6966015454266151
|
||||
2/28/20,0.05333333333333334,9979.69866511494,19.522301300486347,0.7790335845737427
|
||||
2/29/20,0.08,9977.328207469527,21.800197570209086,0.8715949602630044
|
||||
3/1/20,0.1,9974.668091627558,24.356400959183517,0.9755074132576449
|
||||
3/2/20,0.17666666666666667,9971.685017366766,27.222898191988705,1.092084441244626
|
||||
3/3/20,0.24333333333333335,9968.34337291806,30.43389578310618,1.2227312988346257
|
||||
3/4/20,0.3466666666666667,9964.605234965518,34.025820036919995,1.3689449975620385
|
||||
3/5/20,0.5733333333333334,9960.430368646397,38.037317047716726,1.5323143058849769
|
||||
3/6/20,0.7233333333333334,9955.77622755113,42.50925269968544,1.7145197491852677
|
||||
3/7/20,1.12,9950.597953723314,47.4847126669177,1.9173336097684561
|
||||
3/8/20,1.5,9944.8448045356,53.01237292907167,2.142822535329084
|
||||
3/9/20,1.7133333333333334,9938.42938086884,59.17565842355453,2.3949607076053994
|
||||
3/10/20,2.3600000000000003,9931.284416242248,66.03936148704915,2.6762222707021737
|
||||
3/11/20,3.6833333333333336,9923.337837581861,73.67299461476044,2.9891678033797313
|
||||
3/12/20,5.19,9914.501858677362,82.16105475639304,3.3370865662455413
|
||||
3/13/20,7.156666666666667,9904.672980182095,91.60302331615122,3.7239965017542147
|
||||
3/14/20,9.523333333333333,9893.731989613054,102.11336615273899,4.1546442342075025
|
||||
3/15/20,9.726666666666667,9881.543961350886,113.82153357936006,4.634505069754301
|
||||
3/16/20,14.356666666666667,9867.958256639891,126.87196036371769,5.169782996390647
|
||||
3/17/20,20.32,9852.808523588024,141.42406572801508,5.767410683959723
|
||||
3/18/20,29.576666666666668,9835.912697166894,157.65225334895476,6.435049484151843
|
||||
3/19/20,46.980000000000004,9817.072999211756,175.7459113577394,7.181089430504479
|
||||
3/20/20,64.67666666666668,9796.075938421527,195.90941234007096,8.014649238402235
|
||||
3/21/20,85.75,9772.692310358772,218.3621133361513,8.94557630507686
|
||||
3/22/20,112.11333333333334,9746.677197449711,243.33835584068188,9.984446709607242
|
||||
3/23/20,145.54333333333335,9717.769968984217,271.0874658028638,11.14256521291942
|
||||
3/24/20,179.12,9685.694281115815,301.87375362639807,12.431965257786567
|
||||
3/25/20,219.26000000000002,9650.158076861686,335.9765141694853,13.865408968829001
|
||||
3/26/20,279.4533333333334,9610.856608434478,373.6868457962786,15.456545769241968
|
||||
3/27/20,338.8566666666667,9567.478576225396,415.2978095557358,17.223614218867255
|
||||
3/28/20,404.9266666666667,9519.55452671549,461.25900332866496,19.186469955843926
|
||||
3/29/20,469.6966666666667,9466.575218355096,512.0586800277034,21.366101617200858
|
||||
3/30/20,539.4566666666667,9408.030818560183,568.1836003605466,23.78558107927107
|
||||
3/31/20,627.24,9343.41090371236,630.1190328299489,26.470063457691705
|
||||
4/1/20,711.2066666666667,9272.204459158873,698.3487537337221,29.44678710740408
|
||||
4/2/20,812.0533333333334,9193.899879212608,773.3550471647377,32.745073622653635
|
||||
4/3/20,918.6066666666667,9107.984967152086,855.6187050109245,36.39632783698995
|
||||
4/4/20,1029.4833333333333,9013.946935221464,945.6190269552703,40.434037823266756
|
||||
4/5/20,1123.5500000000002,8911.272404630537,1043.8338204758206,44.89377489364194
|
||||
4/6/20,1222.2,8799.447405554742,1150.7394008456806,49.8131935995775
|
||||
4/7/20,1320.7366666666667,8677.957377135148,1266.8105911330124,55.23203173183961
|
||||
1/23/20,0.0033333333333333335,9999.626113386079,0.37230583883831997,0.001580775083324244
|
||||
1/24/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.580819259681,0.41583438345459556,0.0033463568642014686
|
||||
1/25/20,0.006666666666666667,9999.530230228735,0.46445142584021487,0.005318345424480439
|
||||
1/26/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.47370932509,0.5187690982427566,0.007521576667486238
|
||||
1/27/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.410195889064,0.5798066330548258,0.009997477880255805
|
||||
1/28/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.339138031506,0.6480944150281179,0.012767553465387143
|
||||
1/29/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.260059588487,0.7240900933704791,0.01585031814283714
|
||||
1/30/20,0.016666666666666666,9999.172252789236,0.8084738810676947,0.01927332969492851
|
||||
1/31/20,0.023333333333333334,9999.07477825615,0.9021485548834887,0.023073188966349793
|
||||
2/1/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.966465004776,1.0062394553595233,0.027295539864155356
|
||||
2/2/20,0.02666666666666667,9998.845910443826,1.1220944868154006,0.03199506935776539
|
||||
2/3/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.711480375172,1.25128411734866,0.03723550747896588
|
||||
2/4/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.561308993843,1.395601378834781,0.043089627321908686
|
||||
2/5/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.39329888803,1.5570618669271807,0.049639245043111464
|
||||
2/6/20,0.03666666666666667,9998.205121039082,1.7379037410572156,0.05697521986145768
|
||||
2/7/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.994214821507,1.9405877244341811,0.06519745405819667
|
||||
2/8/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.757788002978,2.167797104045311,0.07441489297694354
|
||||
2/9/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.49281674432,2.4224377306557763,0.08474552502367921
|
||||
2/10/20,0.03666666666666667,9997.196045599525,2.7076380188086904,0.09631638166675051
|
||||
2/11/20,0.04,9996.863987515739,3.0267489468251028,0.10926353743687005
|
||||
2/12/20,0.04,9996.49292383327,3.383344056804001,0.12373210992711622
|
||||
2/13/20,0.043333333333333335,9996.078904285585,3.781219454622314,0.13987625979293328
|
||||
2/14/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.617746999313,4.224393809934907,0.15785919075213134
|
||||
2/15/20,0.043333333333333335,9995.1002843298,4.721669599528161,0.17804607067301811
|
||||
2/16/20,0.043333333333333335,9994.51681367383,5.2823631824930155,0.20082314367731274
|
||||
2/17/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.866236643022,5.907537561491386,0.2262257954873463
|
||||
2/18/20,0.043333333333333335,9993.145303048906,6.6003222607315735,0.2543746903620989
|
||||
2/19/20,0.043333333333333335,9992.3484511426,7.366066604595429,0.2854822528061755
|
||||
2/20/20,0.043333333333333335,9991.467807614792,8.212339717638347,0.31985266756980574
|
||||
2/21/20,0.05,9990.49318759576,9.148930524589279,0.357881879648844
|
||||
2/22/20,0.05,9989.412094655365,10.187847750350715,0.40005759428476934
|
||||
2/23/20,0.05,9988.209720803035,11.343319919998702,0.44695927696468557
|
||||
2/24/20,0.05,9986.868946487795,12.631795358782828,0.4992581534213214
|
||||
2/25/20,0.05,9985.370340598241,14.071942192126231,0.55771720963303
|
||||
2/26/20,0.05,9983.692160462551,15.6846483456256,0.6231911918237895
|
||||
2/27/20,0.05333333333333334,9981.810351848486,17.49302154505117,0.6966266064632024
|
||||
2/28/20,0.05333333333333334,9979.698548963388,19.522389316346732,0.7790617202664967
|
||||
2/29/20,0.08,9977.328074454175,21.800298985629603,0.871626560194524
|
||||
3/1/20,0.1,9974.667939407356,24.35651767919067,0.9755429134537615
|
||||
3/2/20,0.17666666666666667,9971.684843349009,27.223032323494365,1.0921243274963113
|
||||
3/3/20,0.24333333333333335,9968.343174244801,30.43404964517867,1.2227761100198993
|
||||
3/4/20,0.3466666666666667,9964.605008499977,34.0259961710551,1.368995328967877
|
||||
3/5/20,0.5733333333333334,9960.430110959362,38.03751822810872,1.5323708125292201
|
||||
3/6/20,0.7233333333333334,9955.775934907364,42.50948194349819,1.714583149138529
|
||||
3/7/20,1.12,9950.597622067968,47.48497324455561,1.9174046874760293
|
||||
3/8/20,1.5,9944.84442854444,53.012669251851825,2.142902203706911
|
||||
3/9/20,1.7133333333333334,9938.42895410591,59.17599585284586,2.3950500412444136
|
||||
3/10/20,2.3600000000000003,9931.283932855977,66.03974477747416,2.6763223665493383
|
||||
3/11/20,3.6833333333333336,9923.337290533966,73.67342957831782,2.989279887716061
|
||||
3/12/20,5.19,9914.501239669193,82.16154831054949,3.337212020256658
|
||||
3/13/20,7.156666666666667,9904.672279580966,91.60358353193345,3.7241368871009115
|
||||
3/14/20,9.523333333333333,9893.731196378578,102.11400230282548,4.154801318596304
|
||||
3/15/20,9.726666666666667,9881.543062961318,113.82225618617304,4.634680852508023
|
||||
3/16/20,14.356666666666667,9867.957239018466,126.87278124751504,5.169979734018956
|
||||
3/17/20,20.32,9852.807371029287,141.42499805498207,5.767630915729693
|
||||
3/18/20,29.576666666666668,9835.911392263044,157.65331167929628,6.435296057658534
|
||||
3/19/20,46.980000000000004,9817.071522778988,175.74711169377133,7.181365527241471
|
||||
3/20/20,64.67666666666668,9796.074269426355,195.91077217431248,8.014958399332206
|
||||
3/21/20,85.75,9772.690425844381,218.36365169941672,8.945922456202144
|
||||
3/22/20,112.11333333333334,9746.675072462287,243.34009335017237,9.984834187540384
|
||||
3/23/20,145.54333333333335,9717.767576499287,271.08942471025955,11.142998790453747
|
||||
3/24/20,179.12,9685.691591964583,301.8759578659497,12.432450169466733
|
||||
3/25/20,219.26000000000002,9650.15505965737,335.9789894061061,13.865950936521557
|
||||
3/26/20,279.4533333333334,9610.853231424733,373.68961744439315,15.457151130873314
|
||||
3/27/20,338.8566666666667,9567.474802854209,415.300906852197,17.224290293593914
|
||||
3/28/20,404.9266666666667,9519.550307950312,461.2624673499276,19.187224699759707
|
||||
3/29/20,469.6966666666667,9466.570501299342,512.0625548195518,21.366943881105254
|
||||
3/30/20,539.4566666666667,9408.025546973822,568.1879323495817,23.7865206765954
|
||||
3/31/20,627.24,9343.4050185325,630.1238702350745,26.47111123242524
|
||||
4/1/20,711.2066666666667,9272.197899020346,698.3541459776321,29.447955002020144
|
||||
4/2/20,812.0533333333334,9193.892580968562,773.3610442854016,32.74637474603575
|
||||
4/3/20,918.6066666666667,9107.976866394565,855.6253570730756,36.397776532357945
|
||||
4/4/20,1029.4833333333333,9013.937966802005,945.6263834618914,40.4356497361029
|
||||
4/5/20,1123.5500000000002,8911.262503180751,1043.8419297796308,44.89556703961706
|
||||
4/6/20,1222.2,8799.4365060069,1150.7483095606217,49.8151844324771
|
||||
4/7/20,1320.7366666666667,8677.945415242773,1266.8203435457365,55.234241211489994
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
|
|||
Beta: 0.2367418297398915
|
||||
Gamma: 0.08679182290949222
|
||||
Mu: 0.10967338538708958
|
||||
R0: 1.205006381498899
|
||||
Predicted I: 934.6265172952101, Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
Beta: 0.2367380660038712
|
||||
Gamma: 0.08679089871294347
|
||||
Mu: 0.10967080829342284
|
||||
R0: 1.2050086992077278
|
||||
Predicted I: 934.6300578153925
|
||||
Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,77 +1,77 @@
|
|||
,Actual,S,I,R
|
||||
4/10/03,499.0,9500.0,500.0,0.0
|
||||
4/11/03,529.5,9444.227075391838,514.0807218021808,41.692202805979804
|
||||
4/12/03,554.0,9391.905808241256,527.8835492084675,80.21064255027629
|
||||
4/14/03,595.0,9342.737831622848,541.4072053704581,115.85496300669492
|
||||
4/15/03,616.0,9296.461524712588,554.6500653009963,148.88840998641558
|
||||
4/16/03,634.0,9252.833038871782,567.6114509240942,179.55551020412332
|
||||
4/17/03,648.5,9211.626297647057,580.2916310749339,208.0820712780086
|
||||
4/18/03,679.0,9172.632996770366,592.6918214998664,234.67518172976713
|
||||
4/19/03,679.0,9135.662331729156,604.8142120510969,259.52345621974825
|
||||
4/21/03,701.0,9100.538906279773,616.661803432948,282.7992902872789
|
||||
4/22/03,717.0,9067.13469857277,628.2339699615961,304.63133146563365
|
||||
4/23/03,729.0,9035.339039006762,639.5295862771557,325.1313747160836
|
||||
4/24/03,744.0,9005.045849005795,650.5484116967016,344.4057392975029
|
||||
4/25/03,755.0,8976.153641019362,661.2910902142701,362.55526876636844
|
||||
4/26/03,763.5,8948.565518522382,671.7591505008583,379.6753309767601
|
||||
4/28/03,778.5,8922.189176015216,681.9550059044246,395.85581808036096
|
||||
4/29/03,786.0,8896.936899023654,691.8819544498883,411.18114652645676
|
||||
4/30/03,794.5,8872.725564098935,701.5441788391297,425.73025706193647
|
||||
5/1/03,800.0,8849.478888723479,710.9463510728079,439.5747602037145
|
||||
5/2/03,805.5,8827.14745312997,720.090062772033,452.76248409799797
|
||||
5/3/03,810.5,8805.695796844215,728.9755008085773,465.32870234720815
|
||||
5/5/03,818.5,8785.088747242953,737.603489787653,477.3077629693951
|
||||
5/6/03,823.0,8765.291327948718,745.9754989197179,488.73317313156366
|
||||
5/7/03,827.0,8746.268758829852,754.0936420204754,499.6375991496741
|
||||
5/8/03,830.5,8727.986456000484,761.9606775108748,510.0528664886416
|
||||
5/9/03,833.5,8710.410031820553,769.5800084171109,520.0099597623364
|
||||
5/10/03,837.0,8693.505294895791,776.9556823706242,529.5390227335843
|
||||
5/12/03,841.5,8677.238250077733,784.0923916081009,538.6693583141655
|
||||
5/13/03,844.5,8661.57509846371,790.9954729714727,547.4294285648159
|
||||
5/14/03,849.0,8646.482237396856,797.6709079079174,555.8468546952263
|
||||
5/15/03,851.5,8631.927789194468,804.1249923666973,563.947218438836
|
||||
5/16/03,853.0,8617.900552990895,810.3602263578307,571.7392206512744
|
||||
5/17/03,855.0,8604.389661478894,816.3794458484228,579.2308926726835
|
||||
5/19/03,857.0,8591.38120322021,822.186326607322,586.4324701724694
|
||||
5/20/03,859.0,8578.86118446475,827.7847315642418,593.3540839710073
|
||||
5/21/03,859.5,8566.815529150595,833.1787108097622,600.0057600396423
|
||||
5/22/03,861.0,8555.230078903982,838.3725015953288,606.3974195006882
|
||||
5/23/03,862.0,8544.090593039318,843.3705283332534,612.5388786274285
|
||||
5/24/03,862.0,8533.38274855917,848.1774025967143,618.4398488441157
|
||||
5/26/03,863.0,8523.092140154273,852.7979231197548,624.1099367259716
|
||||
5/27/03,864.0,8513.204280203528,857.2370757972849,629.5586439991877
|
||||
5/28/03,865.0,8503.704598773995,861.5000336850803,634.7953675409241
|
||||
5/29/03,866.0,8494.578443620907,865.5921569997828,639.8293993793109
|
||||
5/30/03,868.0,8485.811080187654,869.5189931189004,644.6699266934471
|
||||
5/31/03,869.5,8477.387691605792,873.2862765808067,649.3260318134012
|
||||
6/2/03,873.0,8469.293378695049,876.8999290847415,653.8066922202106
|
||||
6/3/03,873.5,8461.514710595857,880.3657431994991,658.1195462046451
|
||||
6/4/03,874.0,8454.059819074075,883.6850464724492,662.2551344534753
|
||||
6/5/03,874.0,8446.921131132256,886.8619225328471,666.2169463348977
|
||||
6/6/03,875.0,8440.083849838937,889.9018399182116,670.0143102428513
|
||||
6/9/03,876.5,8433.533919320269,892.8100859584927,673.6559947212374
|
||||
6/10/03,877.0,8427.258024760009,895.5917667760718,677.1502084639196
|
||||
6/11/03,877.0,8421.243592399516,898.2518072857611,680.5046003147232
|
||||
6/12/03,877.5,8415.47878953776,900.7949511948042,683.7262592674355
|
||||
6/13/03,877.5,8409.952524531318,903.2257610028759,686.8217144658064
|
||||
6/16/03,877.5,8404.654446794371,905.5486180020819,689.7969352035472
|
||||
6/17/03,877.5,8399.57494679871,907.7677222769591,692.6573309243319
|
||||
6/18/03,877.5,8394.705156073727,909.8870927044758,695.4077512217959
|
||||
6/19/03,877.5,8390.03694720643,911.9105669540312,698.0524858395376
|
||||
6/20/03,877.5,8385.56293384143,913.8418014874555,700.5952646711165
|
||||
6/23/03,877.5,8381.276470680936,915.6842715590107,703.0392577600547
|
||||
6/24/03,877.5,8377.171653484775,917.441271215389,705.3870752998363
|
||||
6/25/03,877.5,8373.24331907038,919.1159132957147,707.6407676339073
|
||||
6/26/03,877.5,8369.487045312782,920.7111294315423,709.8018252556759
|
||||
6/27/03,877.5,8365.89915114463,922.2296700468584,711.8711788085125
|
||||
6/30/03,877.5,8362.476696556172,923.67410435808,713.8491990857493
|
||||
7/1/03,877.5,8359.217482595266,925.0468203740556,715.7356970306806
|
||||
7/2/03,877.5,8356.120051367374,926.3500248960648,717.529923736563
|
||||
7/3/03,877.5,8353.183686035569,927.5857435178184,719.230570446615
|
||||
7/4/03,877.5,8350.408410820526,928.755820625458,720.8357685540174
|
||||
7/7/03,877.5,8347.783048558855,929.8641820396883,722.3527694014589
|
||||
7/8/03,877.5,8345.282144812525,930.9172920980251,723.8005630894507
|
||||
7/9/03,877.5,8342.899946870173,931.9177326215087,725.1823205083202
|
||||
7/10/03,877.5,8340.631421707416,932.8678948596776,726.5006834329073
|
||||
7/11/03,877.5,8338.471712715169,933.7700836254672,727.7582036593645
|
||||
8/7/03,877.5,8336.416139699633,934.6265172952101,728.9573430051577
|
||||
4/11/03,529.5,9444.227498215223,514.0806918043511,41.691809980424836
|
||||
4/12/03,554.0,9391.90651642362,527.8835026942401,80.20998088213929
|
||||
4/14/03,595.0,9342.73870702581,541.4071547728114,115.85413820137813
|
||||
4/15/03,616.0,9296.462466091185,554.6500220455316,148.88751186328352
|
||||
4/16/03,634.0,9252.833960402042,567.6114254130754,179.5546141848826
|
||||
4/17/03,648.5,9211.627127453585,580.2916326713256,208.08123987508787
|
||||
4/18/03,679.0,9172.63367545393,592.6918585113733,234.67446603469665
|
||||
4/19/03,679.0,9135.662811367565,604.8142916683126,259.5228969641217
|
||||
4/21/03,701.0,9100.539146122808,616.66193219301,282.79892168418115
|
||||
4/22/03,717.0,9067.134660129217,628.2341542469728,304.6311856238101
|
||||
4/23/03,729.0,9035.338690702427,639.5298317338948,325.131477563678
|
||||
4/24/03,744.0,9005.045165771518,650.5487232205256,344.406111007956
|
||||
4/25/03,755.0,8976.152603879013,661.2914719366722,362.55592418431576
|
||||
4/26/03,763.5,8948.564114180872,671.7596057751973,379.67628004393066
|
||||
4/28/03,778.5,8922.187396446505,681.9555372920204,395.8570662614749
|
||||
4/29/03,786.0,8896.934741058758,691.8825637061175,411.1826952351238
|
||||
4/30/03,794.5,8872.723029013925,701.5448668995208,425.7321040865539
|
||||
5/1/03,800.0,8849.475977909467,710.9471187094189,439.57690338111394
|
||||
5/2/03,805.5,8827.144160027625,720.0909119423203,452.7649280300533
|
||||
5/3/03,810.5,8805.692116695232,728.9764331602956,465.33145014447217
|
||||
5/5/03,818.5,8785.084677605339,737.6045065676409,477.3108158270197
|
||||
5/6/03,823.0,8765.286868678657,745.9766009487206,488.73653037262176
|
||||
5/7/03,827.0,8746.26391206355,754.0948296679677,499.64125826848067
|
||||
5/8/03,830.5,8727.981226136042,761.9619506698829,510.05682319407566
|
||||
5/9/03,833.5,8710.4044254998,769.5813664790358,520.0142080211623
|
||||
5/10/03,837.0,8693.499320986162,776.9571242000641,529.543554813773
|
||||
5/12/03,841.5,8677.231919654108,784.0939155176737,538.6741648282167
|
||||
5/13/03,844.5,8661.568424790281,790.9970766966393,547.434498513079
|
||||
5/14/03,849.0,8646.475235908974,797.6725885818031,555.8521755092222
|
||||
5/15/03,851.5,8631.92047121485,804.1267478364381,563.9527809487132
|
||||
5/16/03,853.0,8617.892917247817,810.3620569202332,571.7450258319515
|
||||
5/17/03,855.0,8604.38171287363,816.3813504453317,579.2369366810381
|
||||
5/19/03,857.0,8591.37294683699,822.1883041710876,586.4387489919234
|
||||
5/20/03,859.0,8578.852625644973,827.7867809872752,593.3605933677513
|
||||
5/21/03,859.5,8566.80667356705,833.1808309140904,600.012495518859
|
||||
5/22/03,861.0,8555.220932635073,838.3746911021492,606.4043762627774
|
||||
5/23/03,862.0,8544.08116264328,843.372785832489,612.5460515242305
|
||||
5/24/03,862.0,8533.373041148297,848.1797265165677,618.4472323351359
|
||||
5/26/03,863.0,8523.082163469131,852.8003116962648,624.1175248346049
|
||||
5/27/03,864.0,8513.194042687179,857.2395270438795,629.5664302689416
|
||||
5/28/03,865.0,8503.694109646223,861.5025453621331,634.803344991644
|
||||
5/29/03,866.0,8494.56771295243,865.5947265841667,639.8375604634037
|
||||
5/30/03,868.0,8485.800118974352,869.5216177735431,644.6782632521056
|
||||
5/31/03,869.5,8477.376511842927,873.2889531242452,649.3345350328275
|
||||
6/2/03,873.0,8469.281993451481,876.9026539606778,653.8153525878413
|
||||
6/3/03,873.5,8461.50312182267,880.3685149650837,658.1283632122452
|
||||
6/4/03,874.0,8454.048015593646,883.6878669074858,662.2641174988686
|
||||
6/5/03,874.0,8446.909129003156,886.8647881773002,666.2260828195427
|
||||
6/6/03,875.0,8440.07166341341,889.9047476832334,670.0235889033567
|
||||
6/9/03,876.5,8433.521561317571,892.8130331053043,673.6654055771228
|
||||
6/10/03,877.0,8427.245506339777,895.5947508948449,677.1597427653778
|
||||
6/11/03,877.0,8421.230923235116,898.2548262744999,680.5142504903815
|
||||
6/12/03,877.5,8415.465977889655,900.7980032382268,683.7360188721176
|
||||
6/13/03,877.5,8409.939577320409,903.2288445512959,686.8315781282936
|
||||
6/16/03,877.5,8404.641369675368,905.5517317502902,689.8068985743406
|
||||
6/17/03,877.5,8399.561744233479,907.7708651431055,692.6673906234137
|
||||
6/18/03,877.5,8394.691831404656,909.8902638089505,695.4179047863911
|
||||
6/19/03,877.5,8390.023502729777,911.9137655983466,698.0627316718752
|
||||
6/20/03,877.5,8385.549370880679,913.8450271331278,700.6056019861917
|
||||
6/23/03,877.5,8381.262789660168,915.6875238064412,703.0496865333906
|
||||
6/24/03,877.5,8377.15785400201,917.4445497827464,705.3975962152449
|
||||
6/25/03,877.5,8373.229399970933,919.1192179978162,707.6513820312518
|
||||
6/26/03,877.5,8369.473004762633,920.7144601587356,709.8125350786322
|
||||
6/27/03,877.5,8365.884986703768,922.233026743903,711.88198655233
|
||||
6/30/03,877.5,8362.46240525196,923.677487003029,713.8601077450138
|
||||
7/1/03,877.5,8359.203060995791,925.0502289571373,715.7467100470752
|
||||
7/2/03,877.5,8356.105495654809,926.3534593985645,717.5410449466297
|
||||
7/3/03,877.5,8353.168992079527,927.5892038909595,719.2418040295166
|
||||
7/4/03,877.5,8350.393574251419,928.7593067692848,720.8471189792987
|
||||
7/7/03,877.5,8347.768132448055,929.867681173877,722.3641863780713
|
||||
7/8/03,877.5,8345.267166423037,930.9208007854431,723.8120327915224
|
||||
7/9/03,877.5,8342.884909060618,931.9212502021355,725.1938407372479
|
||||
7/10/03,877.5,8340.616327255242,932.8714206948248,726.5122520499358
|
||||
7/11/03,877.5,8338.456564304883,933.773617099125,727.7698185959931
|
||||
8/7/03,877.5,8336.400939911062,934.6300578153925,728.9690022735477
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
|
|||
Beta: 0.00225573366659839
|
||||
Gamma: 0.01741524200420521
|
||||
R0: 0.12952640371312119
|
||||
Predicted I: 946.0965063014658, Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
Beta: 0.002255721398145891
|
||||
Gamma: 0.017414910100826592
|
||||
R0: 0.12952816782205634
|
||||
Predicted I: 946.1041288549815
|
||||
Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,77 +1,77 @@
|
|||
,Actual,S,I,R
|
||||
4/10/03,499.0,9500.0,500.0,0.0
|
||||
4/11/03,529.5,9478.594681592454,512.5877002660018,8.817618141544223
|
||||
4/12/03,554.0,9457.237593461185,524.9102776965382,17.852128842276684
|
||||
4/14/03,595.0,9435.928626930277,536.9724293164429,27.098943753279666
|
||||
4/15/03,616.0,9414.667673579052,548.7787404283372,36.55358599260962
|
||||
4/16/03,634.0,9393.45462522877,560.3337228510325,46.21165192019811
|
||||
4/17/03,648.5,9372.289373942072,571.6418164995505,56.06880955837544
|
||||
4/18/03,679.0,9351.171812023005,582.7073893851227,66.12079859187072
|
||||
4/19/03,679.0,9330.101832016997,593.5347376151906,76.36343036781183
|
||||
4/21/03,701.0,9309.07932671087,604.1280853934052,86.79258789572535
|
||||
4/22/03,717.0,9288.104189132835,614.4915850196279,97.40422584753672
|
||||
4/23/03,729.0,9267.1763125525,624.6293168899298,108.19437055757007
|
||||
4/24/03,744.0,9246.29559048086,634.5452894965919,119.1591200225484
|
||||
4/25/03,755.0,9225.461916647466,644.2435146525669,130.29456869996685
|
||||
4/26/03,763.5,9204.675184627875,653.7292446879925,141.59557068413258
|
||||
4/28/03,778.5,9183.935288594885,663.006505667155,153.05820573795992
|
||||
4/29/03,786.0,9163.24212313631,672.0786695546125,164.6792073090769
|
||||
4/30/03,794.5,9142.59558306551,680.9490743653055,176.45534256918526
|
||||
5/1/03,800.0,9121.995563421382,689.6210241645568,188.3834124140605
|
||||
5/2/03,805.5,9101.441959468377,698.0977890680718,200.4602514635516
|
||||
5/3/03,810.5,9080.93466669648,706.3826052419383,212.68272806158123
|
||||
5/5/03,818.5,9060.473580821228,714.478674902626,225.0477442761459
|
||||
5/6/03,823.0,9040.058597783696,722.3891663169875,237.55223589931555
|
||||
5/7/03,827.0,9019.689613750508,730.1172138022575,250.19317244723374
|
||||
5/8/03,830.5,8999.366525113828,737.6659177260531,262.9675571601179
|
||||
5/9/03,833.5,8979.089228491366,745.0383445063738,275.87242700225903
|
||||
5/10/03,837.0,8958.857620726378,752.2375266116013,288.9048526620217
|
||||
5/12/03,841.5,8938.671598887655,759.2664625605001,302.06193855184415
|
||||
5/13/03,844.5,8918.531060269544,766.1281169222168,315.3408228082384
|
||||
5/14/03,849.0,8898.43590239193,772.8254203162803,328.73867729178994
|
||||
5/15/03,851.5,8878.38602300024,779.3612694126019,342.25270758715817
|
||||
5/16/03,853.0,8858.381320065448,785.7385269314753,355.8801530030757
|
||||
5/17/03,855.0,8838.421691784073,791.960021643577,369.61828657234935
|
||||
5/19/03,857.0,8818.507036578176,798.0285483699649,383.46441505185925
|
||||
5/20/03,859.0,8798.637253095361,803.9468679820802,397.41587892255905
|
||||
5/21/03,859.5,8778.812240208776,809.7177074017461,411.47005238947645
|
||||
5/22/03,861.0,8759.03189701712,815.343759601168,425.6243433817125
|
||||
5/23/03,862.0,8739.296122844624,820.827683602934,439.8761935524421
|
||||
5/24/03,862.0,8719.604817241072,826.1721044800144,454.22307827891353
|
||||
5/26/03,863.0,8699.957879981788,831.3796133557619,468.6625066624491
|
||||
5/27/03,864.0,8680.355211067645,836.4527674039116,483.19202152844446
|
||||
5/28/03,865.0,8660.79671072505,841.3940898485808,497.809199426369
|
||||
5/29/03,866.0,8641.282279405965,846.2060699642695,512.511650629766
|
||||
5/30/03,868.0,8621.811817787888,850.8911630758598,527.2970191362518
|
||||
5/31/03,869.5,8602.385226773866,855.4517905586162,542.162982667517
|
||||
6/2/03,873.0,8583.002407492488,859.8903398381857,557.1072526693256
|
||||
6/3/03,873.5,8563.663261297886,864.2091643905977,572.1275743115153
|
||||
6/4/03,874.0,8544.367689769739,868.4105837422638,587.2217264879973
|
||||
6/5/03,874.0,8525.115594713265,872.4968834699781,602.3875218167568
|
||||
6/6/03,875.0,8505.90687815923,876.470315200917,617.6228066398522
|
||||
6/9/03,876.5,8486.741442363944,880.3330966126388,632.9254610234161
|
||||
6/10/03,877.0,8467.61918980926,884.0874114330854,648.293398757654
|
||||
6/11/03,877.0,8448.540023202573,887.7354094405802,663.7245673568459
|
||||
6/12/03,877.5,8429.503845476827,891.2792064638286,679.2169480593448
|
||||
6/13/03,877.5,8410.510559791684,894.7204994674133,694.7689407409007
|
||||
6/16/03,877.5,8391.560069536834,898.0601377124788,710.3797927506865
|
||||
6/17/03,877.5,8372.652278317999,901.2998654333252,726.0478562486757
|
||||
6/18/03,877.5,8353.787089952133,904.4414664314635,741.7714436164025
|
||||
6/19/03,877.5,8334.96440846746,907.4866998396931,757.5488916928467
|
||||
6/20/03,877.5,8316.184138103461,910.4373001221032,773.3785617744354
|
||||
6/23/03,877.5,8297.446183310887,913.294977074071,789.2588396150414
|
||||
6/24/03,877.5,8278.750448751753,916.0614158222633,805.1881354259838
|
||||
6/25/03,877.5,8260.096839299336,918.7382768246354,821.164883876028
|
||||
6/26/03,877.5,8241.485260038182,921.3271958704316,837.187544091386
|
||||
6/27/03,877.5,8222.915616264097,923.8297840801858,853.2545996557159
|
||||
6/30/03,877.5,8204.387813484158,926.2476279057198,869.3645586101221
|
||||
7/1/03,877.5,8185.901757416699,928.5822891301452,885.5159534531554
|
||||
7/2/03,877.5,8167.457353991325,930.8353048678621,901.7073411408129
|
||||
7/3/03,877.5,8149.054509348902,933.0081875645594,917.9373030865378
|
||||
7/4/03,877.5,8130.693129841564,935.1024249972156,934.2044451612198
|
||||
7/7/03,877.5,8112.373122032706,937.1194802740976,950.5073976931949
|
||||
7/8/03,877.5,8094.094392696993,939.0607918347613,966.8448154682457
|
||||
7/9/03,877.5,8075.856848820347,940.9277734500515,983.2153777296002
|
||||
7/10/03,877.5,8057.660397599964,942.7218142221024,999.6177881779337
|
||||
7/11/03,877.5,8039.5049464442955,944.4442785843365,1016.0507749713671
|
||||
8/7/03,877.5,8021.390402973066,946.0965063014658,1032.5130907254681
|
||||
4/11/03,529.5,9478.594797880143,512.5877515850204,8.817450534836293
|
||||
4/12/03,554.0,9457.237825512528,524.9103840652413,17.851790422230323
|
||||
4/14/03,595.0,9435.92897422301,536.9725943123481,27.098431464641457
|
||||
4/15/03,616.0,9414.668135592678,548.7789674816934,36.55289692562914
|
||||
4/16/03,634.0,9393.455201444545,560.3340152484142,46.210783307039044
|
||||
4/17/03,648.5,9372.290063843022,571.642177387414,56.06775876956434
|
||||
4/18/03,679.0,9351.172615093892,582.7078217733628,66.11956313274575
|
||||
4/19/03,679.0,9330.102747744331,593.5352443806969,76.36200787497145
|
||||
4/21/03,701.0,9309.080354582904,604.1286692836189,86.79097613347722
|
||||
4/22/03,717.0,9288.105328639555,614.4922486560981,97.40242270434625
|
||||
4/23/03,729.0,9267.17756318562,624.6300627718699,108.19237404250939
|
||||
4/24/03,744.0,9246.296951733819,634.5461200044364,119.15692826174484
|
||||
4/25/03,755.0,9225.463388015429,644.2444320215438,130.29217996302722
|
||||
4/26/03,763.5,9204.676765607726,653.7302509578715,141.59298343440318
|
||||
4/28/03,778.5,9183.93697868519,663.0076028470752,153.0554184677354
|
||||
4/29/03,786.0,9163.243921837338,672.0798595628873,164.67621859977413
|
||||
4/30/03,794.5,9142.597489879228,680.95035903079,176.4521510899815
|
||||
5/1/03,800.0,9121.997577851454,689.6224052280132,188.38001692053138
|
||||
5/2/03,805.5,9101.444081020154,698.0992681835374,200.45665079630945
|
||||
5/3/03,810.5,9080.936894876995,706.3841839780914,212.6789211449134
|
||||
5/5/03,818.5,9060.475915139194,714.4803547441537,225.0437301166526
|
||||
5/6/03,823.0,9040.061037749501,722.3909486659516,237.54801358454827
|
||||
5/7/03,827.0,9019.692158876205,730.1190999794617,250.1887411443335
|
||||
5/8/03,830.5,8999.369174913136,737.6679089724097,262.9629161144533
|
||||
5/9/03,833.5,8979.091982479664,745.0404419842708,275.86757553606435
|
||||
5/10/03,837.0,8958.860478420696,752.2397314062691,288.89979017303517
|
||||
5/12/03,841.5,8938.674559806675,759.2687756813777,302.0566645119463
|
||||
5/13/03,844.5,8918.534123933592,766.1305393043193,315.33533676209004
|
||||
5/14/03,849.0,8898.439068322965,772.8279528215653,328.7329788554703
|
||||
5/15/03,851.5,8878.38929072186,779.363912831337,342.24679644680316
|
||||
5/16/03,853.0,8858.38468910288,785.7412819836038,355.87402891351627
|
||||
5/17/03,855.0,8838.425161664165,791.9628889800852,369.6119493557494
|
||||
5/19/03,857.0,8818.510606829397,798.0315285742495,383.45786459635383
|
||||
5/20/03,859.0,8798.640923247793,803.9499615713142,397.4091151808929
|
||||
5/21/03,859.5,8778.816009794113,809.7209148282461,411.4630753776416
|
||||
5/22/03,861.0,8759.035765568653,815.3470812537611,425.6171531775872
|
||||
5/23/03,862.0,8739.300089897248,820.8311198083239,439.86879029442804
|
||||
5/24/03,862.0,8719.608882331277,826.1756555041492,454.215462164575
|
||||
5/26/03,863.0,8699.96204264765,831.3832794051998,468.65467794715045
|
||||
5/27/03,864.0,8680.359470848824,836.4565486271888,483.1839805239886
|
||||
5/28/03,865.0,8660.801067162787,841.3979863375779,497.80094649963576
|
||||
5/29/03,866.0,8641.286732043072,846.2100817555774,512.5031862013496
|
||||
5/30/03,868.0,8621.816366168752,850.8952901521482,527.2883436791003
|
||||
5/31/03,869.5,8602.389870444433,855.456032849999,542.154096705569
|
||||
6/2/03,873.0,8583.007146000262,859.8946972235884,557.0981567761497
|
||||
6/3/03,873.5,8563.66809419193,864.2136366991241,572.1182691089472
|
||||
6/4/03,874.0,8544.37261660066,868.4151707545627,587.2122126447788
|
||||
6/5/03,874.0,8525.120615033216,872.5015849196102,602.3778000471733
|
||||
6/6/03,875.0,8505.911991521907,876.4751307757217,617.6128777023719
|
||||
6/9/03,876.5,8486.746648324572,880.3380259561017,632.9153257193269
|
||||
6/10/03,877.0,8467.624487924595,884.0924541457033,648.2830579297029
|
||||
6/11/03,877.0,8448.545413030895,887.7405650812295,663.714021887876
|
||||
6/12/03,877.5,8429.509326577934,891.284474551132,679.2061988709347
|
||||
6/13/03,877.5,8410.516131726894,894.725880082434,694.7579881906727
|
||||
6/16/03,877.5,8391.565731868974,898.0656306923121,710.3686374387148
|
||||
6/17/03,877.5,8372.65803061141,901.305470360568,726.0364990280233
|
||||
6/18/03,877.5,8353.792931772661,904.4471828630262,741.7598853643128
|
||||
6/19/03,877.5,8334.970339382451,907.4925273074848,757.5371333100654
|
||||
6/20/03,877.5,8316.190157681756,910.4432381337142,773.3666041845296
|
||||
6/23/03,877.5,8297.452291122821,913.3010251134585,789.2466837637201
|
||||
6/24/03,877.5,8278.756644369147,916.0675733504347,805.1757822804187
|
||||
6/25/03,877.5,8260.103122295493,918.7445432803331,821.1523344241739
|
||||
6/26/03,877.5,8241.491629987882,921.3335706708168,837.1747993413007
|
||||
6/27/03,877.5,8222.922072743597,923.8362666215222,853.2416606348809
|
||||
6/30/03,877.5,8204.394356071178,926.2542175640585,869.3514263647626
|
||||
7/1/03,877.5,8185.90838569043,928.5889852620087,885.502629047561
|
||||
7/2/03,877.5,8167.4640675324135,930.842106810928,901.6938256566575
|
||||
7/3/03,877.5,8149.061307739454,933.0150946383455,917.9235976222009
|
||||
7/4/03,877.5,8130.700012665131,935.109436503763,934.1905508311057
|
||||
7/7/03,877.5,8112.38008887429,937.1265954986554,950.493315627054
|
||||
7/8/03,877.5,8094.101443143036,939.0680100464707,966.8305468104937
|
||||
7/9/03,877.5,8075.86398245873,940.9350939026301,983.20092363864
|
||||
7/10/03,877.5,8057.667614019998,942.7292361545279,999.6031498254744
|
||||
7/11/03,877.5,8039.512245236723,944.4518012215317,1016.0359535417452
|
||||
8/7/03,877.5,8021.397783730051,946.1041288549815,1032.4980874149676
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
@ -3,4 +3,5 @@ Gamma: 0.001
|
|||
Mu: 0.001
|
||||
Sigma: 0.5156784257190153
|
||||
R0: 12.83932927130887
|
||||
Predicted I: 1009.5304659757634, Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
Predicted I: 1009.5304659757634
|
||||
Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
|
|||
Beta: 0.031663066064741584
|
||||
Gamma: 0.018520041050816886
|
||||
R0: 1.7096650044058612
|
||||
Predicted I: 1006.3748700651734, Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
Predicted I: 1006.3748700651734
|
||||
Actual I: 877.5
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -148,7 +148,7 @@ class Learner(object):
|
|||
df = compose_df(prediction, extended_actual, correction_factor, new_index)
|
||||
with open(f'out/{args.disease}-{args.mode}-data.csv', 'w+') as file:
|
||||
file.write(f'Beta: {beta}\nGamma: {gamma}\nR0: {beta/gamma}\n')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}, Actual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}\nActual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
elif args.mode == 'SIR':
|
||||
optimal = minimize(
|
||||
loss_sir,
|
||||
|
|
@ -164,7 +164,7 @@ class Learner(object):
|
|||
df = compose_df(prediction, extended_actual, correction_factor, new_index)
|
||||
with open(f'out/{args.disease}-{args.mode}-data.csv', 'w+') as file:
|
||||
file.write(f'Beta: {beta}\nGamma: {gamma}\nR0: {beta/gamma}\n')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}, Actual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}\nActual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
elif args.mode == 'ESIR':
|
||||
optimal = minimize(
|
||||
loss_esir,
|
||||
|
|
@ -180,7 +180,7 @@ class Learner(object):
|
|||
df = compose_df(prediction, extended_actual, correction_factor, new_index)
|
||||
with open(f'out/{args.disease}-{args.mode}-data.csv', 'w+') as file:
|
||||
file.write(f'Beta: {beta}\nGamma: {gamma}\nMu: {mu}\nR0: {beta/(gamma + mu)}\n')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}, Actual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}\nActual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
elif args.mode == 'SEIR':
|
||||
# exposed_data = self.load_exposed(self.country)
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -198,7 +198,7 @@ class Learner(object):
|
|||
df = compose_df(prediction, extended_actual, correction_factor, new_index)
|
||||
with open(f'out/{args.disease}-{args.mode}-data.csv', 'w+') as file:
|
||||
file.write(f'Beta: {beta}\nGamma: {gamma}\nMu: {mu}\nSigma: {sigma}\nR0: {(beta * sigma)/((mu + gamma) * (mu + sigma))}\n')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}, Actual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
file.write(f'Predicted I: {prediction.y[1][-1] * int(args.popmodel)}\nActual I: {extended_actual[-1] * correction_factor}')
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15, 10))
|
||||
ax.set_title(f'{args.disease} cases over time ({args.mode} Model)')
|
||||
df.plot(ax=ax)
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in a new issue